Armando SimónWith a long, consistent record of successful policies, both internally and internationally, the miscalculation regarding Iran has come as a surprise. Worse, it has resulted in repercussions.
The decision to destroy Iran’s goal of obtaining a nuclear bomb was, obviously, the correct, rational one that only a Democrat would object to. If the mission had ended there, all would have been fine.
But the decision to go one step further and attempt to bring down the fanatical regime, with its obsessive hatred of America and Israel, was a miscalculation that was no doubt inspired by the Iranian people’s mass demonstration against the regime.
The problem, first, was one of timing. By the time that the fleet arrived in the vicinity for the planes and cruise missiles to attack other targets besides the nuclear target, the rebellion had been brutally put down.
The second problem was not understanding the psychology of fanaticism, particularly religious fanaticism.
For one thing, fanatics are relentless. Trump was expecting that, after sustaining so much damage, the Iranian government would, naturally, be suing for peace — a peace that would mean renouncing power. In WWII, with all buildings in the country reduced to rubble, and using children for cannon fodder, der Führer refused surrender until the enemy was literally at his door. And if you take into account the Muslim philosophy that dying for the cause gives you the key to paradise, no surrender is forthcoming. And that tenacity has become frustrating.
And don’t forget that the Muslim savages, like the Communists, have trained little children to be soldiers with fully loaded automatic weapons.
The third problem was also a matter of psychology. There is something visceral about seeing your country being attacked by another country, even if you despise the regime holding power over your country. Many anti-ayatollah Iranians voiced having mixed feelings over the bombings. It reminded me of when Bush Sr. went after Noriega in Panamá; a Panamanian I knew who absolutely hated Noriega told me he wished he was back in Panamá to fight against the invasion.
And then, there was the chain reaction. Iran started attacking every other country in the region, hitting the oil infrastructure particularly. It also started attacking tankers of neutral countries and demanded that they pay a toll for passing through Hormuz unharmed (i.e., extortion).
And then the Houthis joined in.
So, Trump told the other countries to come over and buy American oil. And, America would take over the role of Lloyd’s for a price. Great! Except … increased demand resulted in higher gas prices at home. In an election year.
So, Trump recently lifted the Russian sanctions on oil. Which only recently was punishing other countries with tariffs for buying Russian oil.
And then told Ukraine — which is fighting for its life — to not bomb Russian oil facilities. And when Ukraine disobeyed, Trump asked Musk to cut off Starlink, which is crucial for the defense of Ukraine. This gave the Democrats the opportunity to once more portray Trump as an admirer of dictators (i.e., Putin), unlike them, who admire only Communist dictators.
As a result of this discombobulation, some prominent MAGA supporters have withdrawn their support, incensed at the prospect of another “forever war.”
And, on a personal note, this unraveling of peaceful relations in that part of the world gave the Nobel committee the perfect excuse for not giving Trump his coveted Peace Prize.
I will not look into a crystal ball and try to predict what the outcome will be, but I will predict that the outcome will be interesting.
Armando Simón is a native of Cuba, a retired psychologist and historian, and the author of “The Only Red Star I Liked Was a Starfish,” “A Prison Mosaic,” and “Stories for Lions and Other Felines.”
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