John MerlineAs the conflict with Iran stretches into its eighth month, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll finds that the conflict is not as unpopular as you might think, with a slight plurality still saying they support military action against the terrorist nation and a stronger plurality believing it will prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons – which President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated is the goal of the attacks.
What’s more, a closer look at the results finds wide variations in attitudes about the conflict, with majority support among some, and sometimes surprising, demographic groups.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll surveyed 1,488 adults from Sept. 29 through Oct. 1, giving it a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The first question the October poll asked was a straightforward one: “Do you support or oppose U.S. military action against Iran?”
Overall, 44% say they support the action (with 23% saying they strongly support it), while 42% oppose (28% strongly). Fourteen percent say they’re “not sure.”
Not surprisingly, there’s a strong partisan split, with support solid among self-identified Republicans (71%), much weaker among independents (30%), and weakest among Democrats (26%).
Men are also far more likely to back military action than women (55% vs. 34%), and married women more than single women (42% vs. 28%). (Polls consistently find married women more conservative on a wide range of issues than those who haven’t tied the knot.)
Beyond that, however, there are some unexpected pockets of support. For example, young people are far more likely to support military action than the elderly. The poll found that 53% of 25- to 44-year-olds back military action, but only 34% of those over 65 do.
Support also goes up with income and education levels. While only 36% of those making less than $30,000 back military action, 57% of those whose incomes top $75,000 do. And a majority of college graduates (52%) approve of it, compared with 40% of those who’ve had some college or just a high school diploma.
And even though urban dwellers generally tend to be more liberal on issues, the I&I/TIPP poll finds that 54% of them support military action against Iran vs. only 36% of more traditionally conservative rural residents.
Also of interest, parenthood matters greatly. The survey found that 60% of parents back military action against Iran, but only 37% of childless adults do. The same split shows up among investors vs. non-investors (60% vs. 35%).
Looked at another way, 10 of the 38 separate demographic groups the I&I/TIPP Poll tracks had outright majorities backing military action, while just three (senior citizens, single women and liberals) had majorities opposed.
The next question asked respondents, “How confident are you that U.S. military action will prevent Iran from developing or obtaining a nuclear weapon?” Overall, 47% express confidence in this outcome (24% are “very confident”), while only 37% aren’t confident (just 18% “not at all confident”).
As you might expect, these results track the previous question fairly closely. Confidence is highest among Republicans, conservatives, urban dwellers, young people, men, wealthier individuals, investors, college graduates, and parents. It’s lowest among Democrats, liberals, and seniors.
The third question asked, “How concerned are you that the conflict with Iran could turn into a prolonged war involving the United States?”
Unlike the previous two questions, concern about this possibility is widespread. Fully 73% say they are either very (44%) or somewhat (29%) concerned. A mere 6% are “not at all” concerned and another 12% “not very concerned.”
That concern seems justified, given that — despite the devastation inflicted upon the Iranian regime in terms of leadership, its economy, and its military infrastructure – the country’s remaining rulers refuse to concede defeat or even negotiate in good faith with the Trump administration.
Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly shifted between threats of annihilation and eagerness to cut a deal.
This past Thursday, Trump announced that the U.S. would not strike Iran before the elections, saying that “We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran” and that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”
But on Friday, he appeared to hedge his bets. As the Jerusalem Post reported, “Asked outside the White House why military action against Iran was tied to the midterms and why the U.S. was not acting now, Trump replied: ‘We may. I mean, we’ll see.’” That, the Post said, “marked a notable shift in tone from Trump’s statement a day earlier.”
To date, the military action against Iran has involved no ground troops and, according to the latest report from the Pentagon, has cost 21 Americans their lives.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
John Merline is an editor of Issues & Insights. Over his four decades in journalism, he was deputy editor of Commentary and Opinion at Investor’s Business Daily, where he previously served as Washington Bureau Chief. He launched and edited the Opinion section of AOL News, was an editorial writer at USA Today, editor of Consumers’ Research magazine, and has been published in the Washington Post, San Diego Union-Tribune, National Review, Detroit News, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Forbes, and numerous other publications. He got his start in journalism under the tutelage of the great M. Stanton Evans and earned a Master’s in Strategic Communication from Troy University.
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Terry Jones
Yep, only anti-humans will accept a terrorists sponsor nation to not only obtain but deploy a nuclear weapon. Don’t believe me, believe them when they say it! Only anti-common sense humans will be okay with that.