Terry JonesPresident Donald Trump’s approval among voters remains mostly steady as fall begins and the 2026 midterm election looms, the I&I/TIPP Poll shows. Despite the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and negative media coverage of the clearly improving U.S. economy, will Trump’s hefty political war chest and popularity among MAGA voters be Republicans’ only chance at upsetting the heavily favored Democrats in November?
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll each month queries Americans about how the president is doing, beginning with: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
This month showed little change from September: Overall, 40% of Americans said they had a “favorable” opinion of Trump, while 51% said their opinion was unfavorable. That’s little different than September’s 40% favorable, 50% unfavorable response. Also in October, 5% said they were “not familiar enough to say,” while another 4% were not sure.
That puts Trump’s “favorability gap” at -11 percentage points, basically on par with September’s -10 percentage-point gap. In other words, as the nation slides toward the 2026 midterms, Trump’s favorability seems to have plateaued, especially compared to June, when his favorability gap hit a high of minus-16 percentage points.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll was taken by 1,488 adults from Sept. 29 through Oct. 1. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.
It’s fair to say that Trump has made little political headway. He remains unpopular with Democrats (16% favorable, 80% unfavorable) and only marginally less so among independents (26% favorable, 58% unfavorable). But he holds on to his solid Republican backing (72% favorable, 19% unfavorable).
OK, but outside of politics, who finds Trump favorable, and who doesn’t?
Believe it or not, Trump is popular with younger, prime working-age Americans. A plurality of those 18 to 24 years (44% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and those 25 to 44 years (47% favorable, 43% unfavorable) like Trump just fine.
As for older Americans, they are not Trump fans in general. Those 45 to 64 (37% favorable, 54% unfavorable) and 65-plus (31% favorable, 61% unfavorable) are distinctly negative on Trump.
Men and women sharply diverge as well. Men (49% favorable, 43% unfavorable) are overall supportive of Trump, but not women (31% favorable, 57% unfavorable), who are sharply negative.
A second question is asked each month: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
On this question, 39% overall approved, while 52% disapproved in October. Again, that’s statistically unchanged from September’s result of 38% approve, 52% disapprove.
There’s no big political earthquake. It seems minds have been made up.
Democrats (15% approve, 81% disapprove) and independents (24% approve, 61% disapprove) have seen little from Trump to make them change their minds. That said, the share of Dems who approve of Trump did rise from 13% last month. And Republicans (73% approve, 20% disapprove) continue to offer Trump rock-hard support.
As with the first question, Trump’s approval among men (50% approve, 44% disapprove) is almost the reverse of that among women (29% approve, 59% disapprove), showing once again a significant gender gap.
And his approval among the very young, those 18 to 24 years (42% approve, 41% disapprove), and early working-age people 25 to 44 (46% approve, 43% disapprove) shows his popularity. But also, he still suffers among those 45 to 64 years (36% approve, 55% disapprove) and those 65 and older (31% approve, 62% disapprove).
One somewhat surprising result shows Trump’s approval is highest in some areas you might think he wouldn’t be popular. For instance, he gets a 44% approval rating from voters in the Northeast, compared to just 33% in the Midwest, 42% in the South, and 37% in the West.
Broken down even further geographically and demographically, Trump’s favorability among urban dwellers (46% favorable) far outstrips his favorability among suburban voters (38% favorable) and rural Americans (31% favorable). City folk, it seems, like Trump’s blunt, brash speaking style and bold presidential style.
For the third question each month, I&I/TIPP asks voters: “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”
Among all those answering, 37% characterized Trump’s leadership as either “very strong” (21%), “strong” (16%), while another 16% called it “moderate.” On the negative side, 44% described Trump’s leadership as either “weak” (11%) or “very weak” (33%).
Differences by political affiliation were great, as is almost always the case. Only 15% of Democrats called Trump’s leadership either very strong or strong, and just 11% called it moderate. But 72% called it weak or very weak.
That compares to Republicans, who see a very different, much stronger leader, giving Trump 66% very strong or strong leadership grades, with another 19% choosing moderate. Only 13% characterized his leadership as weak.
And independents, as is often the case, stand somewhere in between the two main established parties. A quarter call Trump’s leadership strong, 17% moderate, and 51% weak.
As might be imagined, there were other big differences, particularly by gender.
Men and women see Trump’s leadership differently: 47% of men called Trump’s leadership either strong or very strong, while just 28% of women did. Females (12%) were only slightly less likely than men (13%) to describe Trump’s leadership as moderate. And 35% of all men called Trump’s leadership weak, versus 52% of women.
Another feature each month is I&I/TIPP Poll’s proprietary Leadership Index, a measure that gives the president an overall score based on the most recent data. Those data are broken down by political affiliation.
The index for Republicans has trended down of late, while that for Democrats and the Overall index, while still well below the index for Republicans, show a decidedly upward tilt. Meanwhile, the independents are treading water at 32.1, well below the high near 50 immediately after Trump’s inauguration.
I&I/TIPP each month also asks voters to give school-like grades for the president on both his overall performance and for individual policies. The grades are A (excellent), B (good), C (average), D (poor) and F (unacceptable).
How did Trump perform in October?
Overall, the president was awarded 36% As and Bs, the same as in September. That marks a step up from the 34% As and Bs Trump was given in August, but remains a tad below last spring’s highs of 37% in April and 38% in March.
And, of course, political affiliation again colors the results. Only 14% of Democrats gave Trump the A and B grades, slightly higher than last month’s 13%. That compares to Republicans, who for the third month running gave Trump 65% As and Bs. Independents gave Trump 26% As and Bs, up slightly from 24%.
I&I/TIPP also asks voters to award A and B grades for performance in 15 separate policy areas.
Trump’s highest scores came for “Handling immigration and border security” (41%), “Handling violence and crime in the country” (36%), and “Restoring America’s core values” (35%).
His lowest scores included “Handling inflation and the cost of living” (27%), and “Handling the Russia-Ukraine war,” “Handling taxes,” and “Handling government spending,” all at 30%, along with “Handling the economy,” “Handling healthcare,” and “Handling the U.S.-Iran conflict,” all at 31%.
A number of scores fell somewhere in between in the 33% to 34% group, including “Handling jobs and employment,” “Handling energy policy,” and “Handling China,” all at 33%, and “Managing the federal government effectively” and “Handling education,” both at 34%.
The overall impression from this month’s batch of data on Trump’s leadership suggests that he has steadied the ship midway through his presidential voyage, with just a month left until the midterm elections decide whether U.S. voters want a friendly Republican-led Congress, or a more antagonistic Democrat-led Congress.
Last month, we noted: “Right now, political prediction markets give Democrats good odds for taking control of both the House and the Senate.”
As one example, we cited the Kalshi website, which then gave a 46% chance of the Democrats sweeping both chambers of Congress, with a 39% chance of Democratic control of the House and GOP control of the Senate, and a 16% chance of GOP control of both houses.
As of this week, the betting odds say 65% for a Democratic sweep, 30% for a Dem House and GOP Senate and just 8.1% chance for a Republican sweep. So the odds have shifted in the Democrats’ favor. Democrats clearly hope to make Trump the issue, so they can reverse his legacy.
But, as the leadership data suggest, Trump’s presidency has stabilized since having some issues with voters early in the summer over “affordability,” a media mantra frequently cited as a reason for Trump’s issues with voters.
With major inflation gauges easing in recent weeks, and oil now below $90 a barrel after peaking in April at more than $112 a barrel, more good news on affordability could be in the offing.
But will the good news be digested by the voting public? Will the GOP use its $100 million-plus cash advantage to surprise the election prognosticators? And can Trump’s vow to spend “a lot” of his own MAGA war chest of $404 million help make up ground on the Democrats with less than a month to go before Americans go to the polls?
Those are all open questions. But elections aren’t over until the votes are counted. As the I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, Trump’s leadership has stabilized in the public’s eye, but not so the Republican-led Congress, whose failure to pass a popular voter I.D. law may have hurt the GOP’s chances more than Republicans realize.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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