Trump’s Approval Stays Strong With GOP, But Weakens Among Indie Voters: I&I/TIPP Poll

After a brief mid-summer slump in favorability, has President Trump regained his presidential mojo as summer nears an end? Even as the conflict with Iran remains unresolved and Democrats ratchet up their midterm election anti-Trump rhetoric, voting-age Americans have turned more favorable in their views of Trump, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

The national online I&I/TIPP Poll each month asks Americans about presidential performance, starting with: “Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

In the latest I&I/TIPP Poll, 40% of respondents described their opinion of Trump as “favorable,” while 50% called their opinion “unfavorable.” Another 6% described themselves as “not familiar enough to say,” and 4% were not sure. All in all, that’s a minus-10 percentage-point favorability gap.

The poll included a national online sample of 1,461 adults taken from Aug. 25 through Aug. 28, with a +/-2.9 percentage-point margin of error.

By comparison, Trump’s “favorable” ratings were a point lower a month ago at 39%, while “unfavorable” ratings were two points higher at 52% — for a minus-12 percentage-point favorability gap.

So it appears Trump’s “summer slump” in favorability may be over. In June, Trump slipped to just 37% favorable, with 53% unfavorable. A minus-16 percentage point gap.

The improvement in the latest I&I/TIPP reading came mainly from a surprising source: Democrats. The Dems gave Trump a 16% favorable rating and a 77% unfavorable rating for the month. But that was a big improvement on the last poll’s reading, when just 13% were favorable, and 81% were unfavorable.

That’s a swing from a net minus-68% unfavorable/favorable rating to minus-61%, a seven-point swing in Trump’s favorability.

Among Republicans, 73% held a favorable opinion of Trump, versus 18% holding an unfavorable opinion. That compares to 75% favorable and 19% unfavorable a month ago, with very little net change overall.

Likewise, independents came in at 27% favorable and 61% unfavorable in the latest I&I/TIPP poll, virtually unchanged from 28% favorable and 61% unfavorable from the month before.

I&I/TIPP each month asks a second question of possible voters about how the president is handing his job: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

Overall, 38% approved while 52% disapproved. Another 5% said they were “not familiar enough to say,” and 5% were not sure. Those numbers are statistically identical to last month’s.

The same is true for Republicans (73% approve, 19% disapprove), basically the same as last month. But independents soured somewhat on Trump (26% approve, 61% disapprove compared with 29% approve, 59% disapprove. But once again, Dems improved slightly — 13% approve, 80% disapprove, up from last month’s 12% approve, 82% disapprove.

So once again, Trump holds on to his base support, but in a minor surprise ekes a small gain from among Democrats.

Trump has a few demographic strongholds of support.

For instance, men (47% approve, 45% disapprove) are far more favorable toward Trump than women (30% approve, 59% disapprove). It’s a huge gap between the genders.

And of the four major age groups tallied by I&I/TIPP, only one gives Trump positive approval: those aged 25-44 years old (46% approve, 44% disapprove), the prime working age for most. The other three age groups are all underwater in their Trump approval scores.

By far Trump’s most enthusiastic backers are investors (59% approve, 37% disapprove). That’s the near-complete opposite to non-investors (29% approve, 60% disapprove).

Why would this big gap be? Outsized returns in stock markets during Trump’s tenure have boosted the value of investors’ holdings, while non-investors continue to feel the pinch of the Biden administration’s 21% burst of inflation.

Despite a decline in inflation under Trump and a Republican Congress, the media’s fixation on Americans’ cost of living and near non-stop discussion of the issue by congressional Democrats has hurt Trump and the Republicans with swing voters.

I&I/TIPP’s third question each month asks, “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”

Overall, 38% described Trump’s leadership as either “very strong” (22%) or “strong” (16%), while another 14% called his leadership “moderate.” On the other side, 44% called Trump’s leadership either “very weak” (35%) or “weak” (9%). Of the rest, 6% were not sure.

Political affiliation, as usual, tilts the responses, as the chart above shows. Among Democrats, 14% called Trump’s leadership either “strong” (7%) or “very strong” (7%), while 72% called his leadership either “very weak” (62%) or “weak” (10%). Another 10% gave Trump a “moderate” rating.

Among Republicans, 69% called Trump’s leadership either “very strong” (41%) or “strong” (28%), while just 10% gave him “very weak” (6%) or “weak” (4%) grades. A sizeable 18% of GOP voters called his leadership “moderate.”

The two major parties may well live in the same country, but they occupy an entirely different headspace when it comes to President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, independents again occupy a middle ground: among indie voters, 25% gave Trump “very strong” (14%) or “strong” (11%) ratings, with another 16% describing his leadership as “moderate.” But 54% termed Trump “weak” (14%) and “very weak” (40%).

Each month, I&I/TIPP Poll also produces its Leadership Index, a proprietary measure giving the president an overall score based on the latest data. Those data are broken down by political affiliation.

The latest Leadership Index edged up to 43.8, a small gain from 43.6 a month ago, but still below the 50 neutral level. Republicans scored Trump at 77.8, little changed from the previous 77.9, while Democrats’ score actually rose to 17.5 from 16.0 last month. Indie voters cut Trump’s leadership score from 34.2 to 31.9, keeping the overall Leadership Index from rising even further.

I&I/TIPP each month also has voters assign traditional school-like grades for the president — A (excellent), B (good), C (average), D (poor) and F (unacceptable) — both for overall performance and individual policies.

The latest poll shows Trump getting 36% As and Bs, a small gain from 34%, but still below the higher marks granted last spring, including May’s 36%, April’s 37% and March’s 38%.

The political breakdown was as expected: Democrats handed Trump 13% As and Bs, which is unchanged. Republicans were also unchanged at 65% As and Bs. Independents again weakened a bit, giving Trump 24% As and Bs, down from 26%.

Among 15 separate policy areas, voters gave Trump the highest A and B scores for “Handling immigration and border security” (42%), “Handling violence and crime in the country” (36%), “Managing the federal government effectively” (34%), and “Restoring America’s core values” and “Handling jobs and employment,” both at 33%.

Trump’s lowest share of A and B scores came for “Handling inflation and the cost of living” (26%), “Handling the Russia-Ukraine war” (29%), “Handling government spending”(30%),  and “Handling healthcare” (31%).

As was the case last month, a group of scores was all clustered at 31%-32%, including “Handling the economy,” “Handling the U.S.-Iran conflict,” “Handling energy policy,” and “Handling education.”

Overall, I&I/TIPP’s leadership gauges show President Trump weakening somewhat during the summer, but now on sounder footing — even gaining some ground with Democrats. But as of yet, it’s not a major shift.

The coming midterm elections, just over two months away, will provide a crucial test for Trump. With an estimated $530 million in campaign cash to spend, including Trump’s own $400 million from political contributions, the GOP has at least a fighting chance to buck the odds and win the midterm battle for control of Congress.

Right now, political prediction markets give Democrats good odds for taking control of both the House and the Senate. The Kalshi website, for instance, gives a 46% chance of a Democrat sweep for control of Congress, but a slightly smaller 39% chance for a Democratic House/GOP Senate combination. Republican control of both houses of Congress stands at just 16% now.

Other sites, including Polymarket, have odds that are roughly in the same ballpark. So for Trump to have a successful finish to his second term in office, he and other Republicans will have to work hard to regain voters’ faith. As always, that’s especially true of highly skeptical independent voters.

Despite what the political market bettors think, Republicans have one major thing going for them now: The Democratic Party’s steady movement leftward, and the growing influence of their socialist wing, which is now ascendant. But will Americans embrace socialism at the ballot box?

Maybe not, given that 61% of people in a recent poll said a move toward socialism would be a “bad thing.” And our own I&I/TIPP Poll found that 62% of Americans disagreed with specific policy proposals of socialist candidates, including 61% of Democrats and 67% of indie voters.

As the I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, Trump seems to be emerging from a summer slump in voter approval, with marginal improvements even among some Democrats, perhaps fearing growing socialist influence on their party. Whether that translates into unexpected election gains for Republicans remains to be seen.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

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