TIPPInsights Editorial BoardEditor’s note: For the past several years, Issues & Insights has worked with TIPP on a monthly poll, the results of which we published each week. This week, TIPP celebrated its unbroken streak of being the most accurate presidential pollster since 2004. The article below has been reprinted with permission. For more information about TIPP, click here. To read our I&I/TIPP poll reports, click here.
We are proud to share our 2024 performance with our readers. The TIPP Poll is the only national poll to correctly identify the winners of the last six presidential elections. By various measures, it consistently ranks as the most accurate. Here, we provide the data to substantiate this claim.
2024 Presidential Election
TIPP’s final call was Trump +1 vs. Actual results – Trump +1.6
2020 Presidential Election
TIPP’s final call was Biden +4 vs. Actual results – Biden +4.5
Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results
2016 Presidential Election
TIPP was one of only two polls to call Donald Trump’s victory in 2016—a bold prediction that went against the tide when ten other pollsters confidently pointed to Clinton. We weren’t afraid to go out on a limb because we trusted our data and our methods. While others played it safe, we stuck to what we saw and were right. Critics can nitpick about the popular vote, but the Electoral College decides the presidency, and we called it. Ultimately, being bold and unafraid to stand apart made all the difference.
The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump’s victory in 2016, as noted by Fox News. In fact, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.
Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016
“The gold standard going forward.” — The Hill
“IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates.” — USA Today
“Investor’s Business Daily was the best poll.” — Bill O’Reilly, The O’Reilly Factor
“This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right.” — Investor’s Business Daily
“Mayur’s firm Technometrica conducts the Investor’s Business Daily Poll, which was rated the “most accurate” poll of the three prior elections. Make that four.” — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)
“Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur.” — The Record (NorthJersey.com)
“IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster.” — Mediaite
2012 Presidential Election
The IBD/TIPP Poll earned the distinction of being the most accurate national presidential poll in the 2012 election from news organizations such as The New York Times and Investor’s Business Daily.
The Little-Known Pollster That Bested All The Others — Bloomberg Businessweek
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race — The New York Times
Record After 2012 Vote Shows – Again – IBD/TIPP Poll Is Nation’s Best — Investor’s Business Daily
2008 and 2004 Presidential Elections
Our poll got the 2008 election precisely correct. In the 2004 presidential election, the IBD/TIPP Poll came closer than any other national poll to mirroring the actual popular vote margin. An analysis of the polling results from Investor’s Business Daily can be found here.
We deeply appreciate your trust and support as we continue to deliver the accuracy and excellence you’ve come to expect. Thank you for allowing us to be a part of your journey to stay informed.
Terry Jones
I & I Editorial Board
It is nice when a pollster can be so accurate. But at their website I noticed an article “Meddlers Of The West Ignite Georgia In A Déjà Vu Of Ukraine” which sounds ridiculous on its face. To suggest that people in Georgia would risk their lives to protest every night (4 nights so far) because of the West’s “meddling” (the USA…Biden…”meddling” in a country of 4 million??)? Really? They compare it to Ukraine as well. Never mind that Ukraine’s regions all voted to separate from russia in 1991 and then had an “Orange” revolution in 2005 (where a pro Ukrainian candidate was poisoned by non other than russia!) and THEN had a Maidan revolution in 2014 (for four months IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER!) where the “Heavenly 100″+ lost their lives since they were unarmed yet pressing in with wooden etc shields on the “police” who shot them. They think THOSE Ukrainians did that because of “the West’s meddling”?? Can a team be called editorial that reaches such an absurd conclusion?? Add to that the absolute horror of putin literally targeting women and children (over 640 children killed no where NEAR anything military!!) to try and break Ukraine’s will to fight! And in the face of that it is UNBELIEVABLE these TIPP “editors” could allow such thoughts to even get CLOSE to their intellects! I remember the little 12 year old girl who had both her legs blown off by russia whose mother lost one leg and her grandmother was killed (again no where near anything military). She got prosthetics and ran some of the Boston marathon. I also remember the Ukrainian mother who lost both her sons within 10 days of each other in 2022. One wonders if they fear World War III so much that their poor minds twist things so. But never mind that putin struggles to fight Ukraine; why on earth would he allow this to devolve into our joining into the war. And there is no way china is going to stick its neck out for an idiot like putin. And they probably don’t even realize that obeying putin out of fear only delays facing their fears to another day when russia has rebuilt its evil military. Good thinking guys! Thanks!