Terry JonesThe media often spin a tale of despondent American voters sitting at home, unengaged and unwilling or unmotivated to vote. But the latest I&I/TIPP Poll suggests that’s not quite right. In fact, a solid majority of voters are quite interested in the outcome of the 2026 midterm congressional elections.
As the elections draw near, I&I/TIPP asked 1,328 registered voters: “On a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means ‘Not at all interested’ and 7 means ‘Extremely interested,’ how interested are you in the 2026 midterm elections?”
Among those taking the poll, roughly two-thirds — 68% — expressed high interest, with 53% selecting answer 7 and 15% picking just one step below that at 6, the two highest possible answers for interest in the election.
That compares to those with more lukewarm opinions (20% expressing “moderate” interest, with answers of 3-5) or an even smaller percentage picking “low” interest answers (9% picking lowest-ranked answers of just 1 or 2).
What’s more, the two major parties are nearly identical: it’s Democrats (76% “high” interest and 16% “moderate”) and Republicans (75% “high” interest and 18% “moderate”).
The outliers are the swing-vote independents: Just 50% express “high” interest, well below the two major parties, but 31% selecting “moderate” interest answers, much higher than either the Dems or GOP respondents.
The national online poll, taken from Sept. 28 through Oct. 1, has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.
Plainly, voters are engaged in the coming elections, with 88% total expressing either “high” or “moderate” interest in the outcome. But indie voters, who tend to sit between the two major parties ideologically, may need more coaxing to go to the polls than diehard Democrats and Republicans.
That’s the main issue in nearly every election: Who will vote, who will sit it out?
To get at that question another way, I&I/TIPP asked voters the following: “How much impact do you think the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will have on the direction of the country?”
Once again, voters seem to feel this election will be important, with 78% saying it would either have a “great deal” of impact (49%) or “some” impact (29%). Just 14% thought it would have “not very much” impact (12%) or “none at all” (3%).
This is another case where the two major parties, for their own partisan reasons, see virtually eye to eye on this question. For Democrats, 86% predict a “great deal” or “some” impact, and just 10% say “not much” or “none at all.” For Republicans, it’s 83% “great deal” or “some,” and 12% “not much or none.” Statistically, the same.
Independents show why they got their name. They see things a bit differently, with 66% in the “great deal” or “some” impact group, and nearly a quarter — 23% — in the “not much” or “none at all” group.
So with independents seeing a bit less at stake in this midterm election, both Republicans and Democrats will have their work cut out for them in getting independents to vote for their candidates.
Finally, I&I/TIPP asked: “How confident are you that votes in the November 2026 elections will be counted accurately?”
Overall, 74% responded that they felt “very confident” (37%) or “somewhat confident” (37%), versus just 20% who said they were “not very confident” (13%) or “not confident at all” (7%). While that latter number is low, it still represents one out of five voters in this survey.
But the two major parties, who generally do the most complaining about vote counting, are most confident that it will all be on the up and up. Among Democrats, 78% were in the “confident” camp, while just 18% said they were not confident. Similarly, 81% of Republicans expressed confidence their votes would be counted accurately, while just 15% were not confident.
Once again, indie voters are most wary about the balloting: Just 59% were confident in the vote-counting process, while 32% (one in three) were not confident.
Also, a significant share of the independent vote again expresses a certain amount of cynicism about the election counting mechanics, and, as a result, will possibly be hard to motivate to vote for either Dem or GOP candidates or issues.
As the numbers above suggest, the two major parties’ focus on independent “swing” voters in the final two weeks of campaigning will be crucial.
“Regardless of the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, any party that wins the majority will have done so because of the independent vote. For the past several elections, this cohort has been the crucial swing vote that ultimately decides the election,” noted Fox News recently. “Independents are the kingmakers.”
How can indies be kingmakers? They are now the largest share of registered voters, outweighing in number both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
How do they lean? Right now, it’s toward the Democrats.
“Democrats have a narrow advantage over Republicans in partisan affiliation among U.S. adults: 47% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, and 43% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party,” notes Pew Research.
But 10% of the electorate has not committed to either party and has no expressed opinion. That’s the largest share of uncommitted voters in nearly a decade. That’s the battleground for both parties over the next two weeks.
Much has been made of the GOP’s fundraising campaign. But, according to Federal Election Commission numbers, spending by Democrats has nearly doubled the amount spent by GOP candidates in this year’s Senate races, and exceeds it by 29% for 2026 House races.
Yet, the margin between the parties remains close. While most voters are interested in this year’s midterm election outcome, a sizable chunk of 10% remain pretty much up for grabs. That means that once again this year’s election will come down to the final two weeks, as I&I/TIPP’s own data suggest.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
Support Independent Journalism
Issues & Insights was founded by seasoned journalists from the IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day -- without fear or favor.
We’re doing this on a voluntary basis because we believe in a free press and because we aren't afraid to tell the truth, even if it means being targeted by the left.
We are 100% reader supported!!
If you like what you see, please feel free to donate.
And be sure to tell your friends!
I’d just like to know this,if you read this Mr Jones: When I subscribed to Investor’s Business Daily, their polling (on its Opinion Page) was much more accurate than other polling (as I remember). This is one thing that always, as I recall, was pointed out in the commentary/opinion pages.
So, is I&I polling in the Real Clear Polling Averages (the alleged pinnacle of accurate polling)? If not, why not? Also, do you (Terry Jones) believe the recipients responses? I’ve read in many places that those answering polls don’t give their true feelings (for one reason or another, for example they don’t want to be tagged as a Trump supporter or they don’t trust polls because-fairly or unfairly-the polls questions or interpretations always seem to have a liberal bias).
RealClearPolitics does include the I&I/TIPP poll in its average for Trump approval ratings. Check it out here. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
We all are aware of identity theft, credit card theft, fraudulent phone calls that we have to be alert for everyday. The criminals are smart and highly motivated to cheat us.
Why is that prevalence and clever cheating not acknowledged by main media editors, DNC, DSA, Democrats and millions of voters, that those same miscreants and criminals could be out there to cheat and distort our important elections, too?
It makes as little sense as Democrats’ objections to showing an ID to vote when everyone has to show an ID for many far less important things like checking out a library book. Why do Democrats have so little American common sense?
If the swing voters stay home in huge numbers, or vote third party because they dislike both major parties, how would that affect the results? It could produce some unusual and unexpected wins and losses.
Interesting question. When people who might ordinarily vote for one major party or the other decide for whatever reason they won’t vote, that impacts the election result. It also tells the major parties who are busy getting their own voters excited about the election that they might be ignoring a large group of potential voters who feel their issues aren’t being adequately addressed. It’s a missed opportunity. This kind of non-participation constitutes a kind of “non-vote,” which definitely affects partisan outcomes, for good or ill, of elections. It’s up to the major parties to appeal to enough voters to win control of congress, and to understand what ignoring independent voters might mean.