I & I Editorial BoardIn our decades of experience covering politics, we’ve never seen a poll as devastating to an incumbent president as the one CBS News/YouGov poll published over the weekend.
The short version is that more voters think they would be better off if Donald Trump returns to the White House than they would if Joe Biden stays there. Think about that for a moment.
Then there’s the New York Times/Sienna College poll, also published over the weekend, showing that Trump leads Biden in five key swing states, and by wide margins: 10 points in Nevada, 6 points in Georgia, 5 in Arizona and Michigan, and 4 points in Pennsylvania.
The Times poll also found that 59% disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, and 71% said he was too old, while only 38% said Trump was too old.
Both polls have sent the mainstream press scrambling to reassure their readers that either the polls don’t mean what they seem, that Biden can “improve his position,” or that, fingers crossed, Trump gets convicted. (The New York Times Monday story carried the headline: “Trump Indictments Haven’t Sunk His Campaign, but a Conviction Might.”)
But of the two, the CBS News/YouGov poll is far worse for Biden. Instead of just asking who they’d support, CBS News asked likely voters a series of questions about who they think they’d be better off with in the years ahead, Biden or Trump.
The results are striking. Just 18% said they’d be better off financially if Biden won, while 48% said they’d be worse off. In contrast, 45% said they’d be better off financially if Trump won.
Another blow for Biden: After spending three years claiming his policies helped the middle class, he has no advantage on this score. More than half (51%) say his policies would favor the wealthy, the same share as say Trump’s policies would favor the wealthy.
Voters also think the world would be a more dangerous place if Biden wins reelection. More said the U.S. could end up in a war under Biden than Trump (49% to 39%), while more think a Trump win will increase peace and stability in the world (47% vs. 31% for Biden).
The poll also found that the share of voters who say “things are going badly in America” has risen from an already high 65% in January to 73% in November. Keep in mind that this is after Biden launched his Bidenomics campaign to sway the public that all is well.
A deeper dive into the CBS poll reveals even more trouble for Biden, particularly when you look at independents who will decide the outcome. Only 10% of independents think they’ll be better off financially if Biden wins. In contrast, 43% of independents say they’ll be better off if Trump wins.
More than half of independents (55%) think a Biden win increases the chances of the U.S. getting into a war, but only 38% say that of Trump. And 80% of independents say things in America are going badly. Nearly three-quarters of independents say the economy is in bad shape.
Keep in mind that these results come after nearly seven years of relentlessly negative coverage of Trump, a multitude of federal and state indictments, and the possibility that he could end up in prison or jail. And after voters already ran Trump out of office once.
Given the growing pile of bad Biden news, how long will Democrats put up with this loser of a president?
Don Levy, director of Siena College Research Institute, told the Guardian what every Democrat must know to be true:
“If the 2024 matchup featured a Democrat other than Biden running against Trump, the ‘generic’ Democrat would be ahead by seven to 12 points in five of the states and ahead by three points in Nevada,” he said.
We can only hope that Biden will refuse to step aside and that Democrats will stick with him until the bitter end.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
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I am weary of reading/hearing about polls. I am still stinging from the “Red Wave” that never happened. Too many polls are generated to shape public opinion not measure it. I personally don’t believe any poll that is made public, these polls are created to generate clicks, get viewers, and shape opinion. Republican candidates and voters need to remain focused on optimizing all of the voting methods (mail, in-person, harvesting, etc . . . ) that the Democrats have successfully used to win. Cheering about polling results that we like will have us all scratching our heads again wondering how that could have been so wrong.
Demos are finally beginning to realize that picking Below Average Joe Biden as their standard-bearer, and using as many mail in ballot shenanigans as they could muster, was a truly awful idea. They were so obsessed with “anyone but Trump” that they picked a candidate who was already showing signs of cognitive decline. Not that Ol’ Dumb Joe was ever very smart, but the public already knew him. At first it made sense as Joe said he would be the ‘transitional president’ bridging the generations, indicating he would only serve one term.
Somewhere along the line, however, he changed (what’s left of) his mind and decided to seek a 2nd term. Even with sycophantic, boot-licking media coverage it’s hard to escape the effects of what will go down in history as among the worst presidencies in our history – certainly the worse in the modern era.
I can’t help but think there there is a growing sense among Democrats that it Trump had won they’d only have to put up with him for another year.
Not only will they have to put up with him for another four years, but this time he will be out for some serious payback.
There is no doubt Biden and his administration of adolescents have proved to be a hot mess. Biden himself has to be one of the most despicable persons I can think of. I don’t want to get started on his discommendable characteristics because I won’t be able to stop.
However, I don’t understand this
“‘generic’ Democrat would be ahead by seven to 12 points in five of the states and ahead by three points in Nevada,”
The Democrats own Joe Biden and all his policies. The vast majority of Democrats approve of them. If the voting public are planning to return Democrats to power, even with some other cynical liar at the top of the tickert, then all I can say is we are a sick nation.
Trump the swamp drainer is what they are really afraid of, along with a return to states’ rights. Powermongers like to accrue more power and authority unto themselves so they can then inflict themselves on the public, witness Hillary’s little statement about reprogramming/reeducating republicans. That lady has a real problem. The leftist globalists are similarly minded, and so apparently are 5 law schools on the east coast, who were talking about abolishing the US constitution.
Re-electing Trump might not fix ALL our problems, but it will continue the overall housecleaning that got started during his first term. The Biden administration has been a sick joke, the joke has been on the public, leftists run amok with an effectively infinite budget, and it time for positive change. Trump 2024