I & I Editorial Board“Trump’s Truly Sh*tty Economy” – Robert Reich
That’s how the diminutive former Clinton labor secretary put it recently on his Substack page, and it’s the message Democrats desperately want every American to hear. We have an affordability crisis! Real wages are falling!! Trump is making it worse!!! The recent elections show the depth of despair!!!!
It’s true that Americans aren’t particularly happy at the moment. The TIPP Economic Optimism Index (TIPP is I&I’s polling partner) is lower today than it was in June 2020, during peak COVID mania. And just 34% give Trump an “A” or “B” grade on his handling of the economy in the latest I&I/TIPP poll, while 49% give him a “D” or an “F.”
But it’s also true that the economy is doing better – in some ways much better – than Democrats (and their handmaidens in the mainstream press) will ever admit.
Consider this: According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast, the economy grew by 4.2% in the third quarter, which ended in October. (The Commerce Department won’t release its official GDP estimate until later this month.)
If that growth rate holds, it will be on top of the 3.8% gain in the second quarter. Which means that from April through October (the first full six months of economic performance in Trump’s second term), the economy will have grown at a faster pace than it did in the previous three years under Joe Biden.
If anyone other than Trump were in the White House, this would be front-page news.
So would the fact that real wages – that is, after adjusting for inflation – were up almost 1% in just the first eight months of this year. When Joe Biden left office, real wages were nearly 2% below where they were when he took office.
So, too, would the fact that inflation has been tamed. While consumers are still feeling the effects of Bidenflation, price increases have at least started to return to pre-Biden levels. The average inflation rate in Trump’s first term was 2%. Under Biden, it was 5%. So far under Trump II, it’s 3%.
But what about the sluggish job growth that Reich and others complain about, and the affordability crisis that has become the latest buzzword among Democrats?
Both of these, it turns out, are largely blue state problems, not the result of anything Trump has or hasn’t done.
For example, six of the 10 states with the highest unemployment rates are heavily Democratic. At the other end, six of the 10 states with the lowest unemployment rates are deep red.
And as our friends at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity note, “9 of the 10 most expensive states are either blue or purple states. New Hampshire is the one outlier. Meanwhile, all 10 of the lowest-cost states are run by Republicans.
“Middle-class consumers pay a high price for progressive and anti-business policies in the state capitals,” says CTUP’s Steve Moore.
Oh, and federal deficits are coming in lower under Trump than they were in Biden’s last year in office.
If this is what constitutes a “sh*tty economy”, then we’ll take more of it.
From our perspective, it’s not Trump’s policies that are a problem (although we are not fans of tariffs), it’s his seeming unwillingness to stay focused on the economy.
People are concerned. He should recognize that and address it directly. Talk about his plans to boost private sector job growth, opportunity, and wages. Talk about how he’s saving taxpayers money by wringing out waste and fraud. Tout his economic wins in a regular and consistent way.
And call Democrats out for their reckless attempts to score political wins by tanking the economy.
Then rinse and repeat.
– Written by the I&I Editorial Board
Unleash Prosperity
One side effect of the govt. shutdown has been the non-availability of US economic info. No jobs reports, no GDP updates, retail sales, etc. etc. It’s easy for demagogues to fill that void when the govt. data (for all its shortcomings) isn’t there to refute them.
I suspect the data released as the govt. catches up will be noticeably better than the screaming left wants us to believe.
One likely example: The referenced Atlanta Fed’s 4.2% estimate for 3Q GDP. That estimate is by no means a perfect predictor, but in non-shutdown circumstances we would know whether it is or not by now, as the govt.’s first release would have been on October 30. Anything that’s 3% or above for Q3 should be considered an impressive success, as seems highly likely.
As for jobs, the just-relesed +119,000 seasonally adjusted jobs added (with prior-month reductions of 33K) looks at least pretty decent, but is actually pretty remarkable.
How remarkable is being completely ignored by the legacy press, they continue to ignore the fact the jobs held by workers born in the US (updated through today) have INCREASED by over 2.5 million in the past 12 months (annual comparisons required because the data isn’t seasonally adjusted), while jobs held by those NOT born in the US have DECREASED by about 670K — All of which supports the claim about “jobs Americans won’t do” is largely a self-serving myth.
I enjoy reading the articles you post. I don’t always agree but they are usually well written(better than I could ever do). This post, for example, is well written however the end seems to contradict the article. In what spare time should Trump spend on the economy? The man is working on so many issues that will, in the end, have a positive effect for all of us. This includes the tariffs. In fact, the tariffs, specifically, how he is using them, is a main driving force behind the economies success. I wish he would impose a much higher tariff on all American companies manufacturing in other countries and/or importing goods that could be made in the USA.
My point is. It would be nice to have someone in the WH point out to the American people what is actually happening with the economy, as well as everything else for that matter, but how? Should there be weakly, address the nation? If he could get all the networks to carry them live, it might be enough to combat the constant, negative barrage from the liberals.
I apologize for the ramble, like I said, I’m not a writer.
When Reich gets a degree in economics maybe I’ll listen to him.
For most people, the cost of gasoline, the cost of ground meat and the stock market averages are the signs of the economy. Well for gasoline, it is way down in most places, except for California which has a huge population, which of course polls as a log of people. Next, the downsizing of the beef cattle heard in the US over the past few years has led us to this point on beef prices. Hopefully, this trend will ease over the next year. Lastly the stock market. Wild swings lately as the “Fed Watch” continues. If the Fed does; their job. Historically, they miss it and step on the cake. Odds they don’t this time are well, low.
That’s how the diminutive former Clinton labor secretary put it…
Leading with a gratuitous insult undermines your points before you even start.
ok, that’s a fair point.
At least his son is entertaining, if a bit cruel and diabolical at times…
TDS is real, and Woke/DEI thinking is an ideology that correlates strongly with cognitive stupidity.
“(although we are not fans of tariffs)”
These polls mean little to nothing. 49% say Trump is doing a poor job? Based on what? Every non brain dead human can see the economy picking up and inflation down. We were subjected to four years of Biden regime’s fantasy economic numbers that were revised regularly and always massively (for the worse). I can recall no other regime guilty of such manipulation yet we saw the Demonrats tell us how great the economy was and how sharp Biden was. I’d like to see what per centage of those saying the economy is poor are Demonrats. I have reservations about Trump but compared to the DNC/CCP Trump is the last hope for the USA. Just look at the turnout for Cheney’s furneral if you want to see how the uniparty functions.
Here’s reality:
President Trump and the GOP are doing a crap job at marketing their success, and if they don’t get their heads out of their collective asses, then there’s going to be a blue wave next November,
Out West here, the best economic indicator is volume of truck traffic on I-80 and I-25. It appears to be booming.