Editor’s note: This has been excerpted with permission from the Pacific Research Institute. To read the entire article, click here.

The blowout that rocked the Chevron refinery in El Segundo on Oct. 2 was quite the explosion. The bigger blast, though, might be yet to come. With more than 16% of the state’s refining capacity now offline indefinitely, California gasoline prices are expected to climb.

Producing 269,000 barrels a day of useful fossil fuels, the El Segundo facility is second in the state only to Marathon’s Los Angeles refinery, which puts out 365,000 barrels a day, good for 22.5% of state’s capacity. The Chevron site provides 20% of motor vehicle fuel in California and 40% of the jet fuel consumed in Southern California.

While a significant loss, the overall picture is even worse. The Phillip’s 66 refinery complex in Wilmington and nearby Carson is scheduled to close. University of Southern California professor Michael Mische tells PRI that the facility received its final oil shipment last week “and will cease all petroleum production on Oct. 16,” taking 139,000 barrels per day and 8.6% of California’s capacity with it.

Engineers are also planning the termination of Valero’s 145,000-barrel-per-day (almost 9% of the state’s capacity) refinery near San Francisco. It’s scheduled to cease operations in April. The company also has a Wilmington refinery, which it is considering shuttering, as well. It produces 85,000 barrels a day, a little more than 5% of the state’s total.

In all cases, the companies have said it’s just too hard for them to do business under California’s tax-and-regulate regime.

The Chevron disaster is not isolated. It’s not even new. PBF Energy’s Martinez refinery was closed after a Feb. 1 fire damaged the facility. It was partly operational in late April, but it won’t be fully back in business until some in the fourth quarter of this year. While its down time caused gasoline prices to rise – as much as 42 cents a gallon in Northern California – it represented only 9.6% of the state’s refining capacity, about 60% of what the El Segundo site produces. The Chevron loss is going to be a bigger hit.

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