Terry JonesInflation may have moderated, and the economy is showing signs of healthy growth, but the public remains deeply concerned about both, according to the latest I&I/TIPP poll.
The poll found that fully 80% of those surveyed by I&I/TIPP say they are either “very” (45%) or “somewhat” (35%) concerned about inflation. Just 17% say they are not concerned. That’s despite the fact that inflation has averaged just 2.6% this year – which is significantly lower than any year under the Biden administration – and came in lower than expected in July.
And while the economy grew a healthy 3% in the second quarter – which was better than expected – only 38% say the economy is improving, and more than three quarters (76%) say they are concerned about an economic slowdown or recession in the next 12 months.
The latest I&I/TIPP poll asked a series of questions to gauge the public’s views about whether the economy is in a recession, if it’s improving, concerns about inflation, whether their wages are keeping pace with prices, and the top three economic issues facing the economy. The national online I&I/TIPP Poll was taken by 1,362 voters from July 30-Aug. 1, and has a margin of error of is +/-2.7 percentage points.
The results show that most Americans remain highly troubled about the cost of living and are concerned about the near-term trajectory of the economy.
Concerns about inflation, for example, cross all ideological and demographic boundaries. While 90% of Democrats say they are concerned about inflation over the next 12 months, so are 71% of Republicans and 79% of independents. In fact, concern about inflation topped 70% in every one of the dozen demographic categories the I&I/TIPP Poll tracks.
What’s more, when asked to name their top three economic concerns, the six most frequently selected all involved cost-of-living issues: food prices (which 35% listed), inflation (32%), wages not keeping up with cost of living (22%), tariffs and trade policy (22%), ability to pay bills (18%), and housing affordability (17%).
At the same time, just 28% say their earnings have kept pace with inflation, with 41% saying they have not. Here, too, there was also not a wide ideological divide. Forty-six percent of Democrats and independents say their wages aren’t keeping up, as do 39% of Republicans.
More broadly, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the current state of the economy. The poll found that a plurality of those surveyed (41%) believe we are in a recession, and a quarter aren’t sure. Just over a third say we are not in a recession – which is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
Half say the economy is not improving, although in this case, there is a wide partisan split, with 72% of Democrats saying that but only 24% of Republicans. Among independents, almost two-thirds (62%) say the economy isn’t improving.
Republicans are far more optimistic about the economy, with nearly two-thirds rating conditions as excellent or good. By contrast, just over one in five Democrats and independents share that view. The sharp partisan divide underscores how economic perceptions are being shaped as much by politics as by pocketbooks.
Partisan differences also extend to personal finances. Nearly half of Republicans (45%) say they are better off than six months ago, compared with only one in five Democrats (20%) and just 15 percent of independents. Many Democrats and independents instead report feeling worse off, highlighting a split economic mood across the nation.
Other demographic splits are worth noting. Twice as many college-educated people say the economy is improving as do those with only a high school education (54% vs. 27%). Men are twice as likely as women to say it’s improving (51% to 25%). Those making more than $75,000 are twice as likely to say the economy is improving than those earning less than $30,000 (58% to 27%).
More than three-quarters of those surveyed say they are concerned about an economic slowdown or recession in the next 12 months. This concern is widely felt, with the breakdown 88% for Democrats, 65% for Republicans, and 76% for independents.
While some of these results could be explained by the relentlessly negative press coverage of the economy – which had been cautiously optimistic up until the day President Donald Trump took office. The result has been a spate of dire forecasts about the effects of Trump’s economic policies that have, more often than not, turned out to be flat wrong.
But when it comes to inflation, people don’t need to rely on news stories to know whether they are struggling to make ends meet.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
I believe that Biden’s the public’s reaction to the faux economic news-where economic news, like unemployment, inflation, or employment, was either revised or was tainted by the Biden political lens it was viewed with, is till prevalent.
I don’t believe that those who were polled are economically illiterate, I believe that the phrase, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” has taken over the feelings and intellect with which the citizens now view economic reportage today.
The BLS’s stats used and the way it was reported (by the BLS-not by the press) in the prior Administration should be criminal-and those BLS staffers should be held accountable for their Bidenesque malice and stat-compiling incompetence.
Unfortunately, until the stats once again are viewed as accurate and reliable the public will view them as “how am I doing”-not as how is the economy doing? And who knows how long that will take.
Our economy is in a transition from one where there are elites and peasants back to one where we have a solid working class. It is and will continue to be a painful transition but the working class will start to feel improvement and see more opportunity. You have to remember how badly the economy and the whole country were destroyed purposefully during the Biden administration. It takes time to recover from destruction.