“Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey, legendary baseball executive

Yes, conservatives, on Tuesday night, ABC moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis harassed The Donald, coddled Kamala, and broke their rule by opening her mic to interrupt.

But here’s the deal: Harris was ready and rarin’ with a better-designed strategy to make her case and get under that orange skin. From the opening handshake she initiated, she capitalized on the luck of the draw: not just the network, but also an opponent who stumbled, rambled, and ranted.

Kamala showed up flawlessly turned out – contrasting her CNN appearance – confident … and superbly prepped.

She pounded home her (meager) Opportunity Economy platform: subsidize babies, housing, and small businesses. She successfully reprised her (ridiculous) claim that a “bipartisan” bill would have solved the border crisis she and Joe Biden created.

She also pulled a Houdini act on:

But in particular, on her fracking about-face, where Kamala added some new wrinkles: that the Inflation Reduction Act “opened new leases for fracking,” and claiming “the largest increase in domestic oil production in history.” 

Above all, Kamala positioned herself as above-the-fray: “turn the page on tired rhetoric.” A “true leader … lifting people up.” The prosecutor with “only one client: the people.”

Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee implemented a picador-esque ploy: poke the bull under the skin just enough to weaken while also goading. 

To cite just a few examples:

• Setting the stage: viewers would “hear from the same old, tired playbook – a bunch of lies, grievances and name-calling.” Later characterizing Trump as “extreme.” 
• Mischaracterizing The Donald’s tariff proposals as an inflationary, budget-busting national sales tax financing tax cuts for billionaires “on the backs of middle-class taxpayers.”
• Audaciously claiming that Joe Biden and she were left to “clean up Donald Trump’s mess:” “the worst unemployment since the Great Depression,” “the worst public health epidemic in a century,” and “the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War.”
• Incredibly charging that Trump is “weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy” because he “admires dictators” and can be manipulated “with flattery and favors.”
• Resurfacing the Charlottesville canard along with claims that Trump “consistently disparaged and demeaned … fallen soldiers,” complete with a paean to John McCain, whom the 45th president did in fact disparage.
• And stunningly turning the charge of justice-system “weaponization” back on her opponent, imagining “Donald Trump back in the White House … with no guardrails” after the Supreme Court immunity decision.

All while commanding the screen as Trump spoke, with headshakes, smirks, smiles, and once, even a hand placed thoughtfully on her chin to further undermine her opponent’s credibility.

Yet the true turning point came when the vice president went beyond getting under Trump’s skin. She coolly plunged the stiletto in deep and twisted it, attacking his pride and joy: his rallies.

Where, she maintained, The Donald talks about “fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter” and “windmills causing cancer.” Where “people start leaving … early out of exhaustion and boredom.” And where “the one thing you will not hear him talk about is you.”

Steam poured out of the MAGA leader’s ears. Already coming across as sullen and angry compared to Harris’ practiced, deft touch, Trump shouted repeatedly into the microphone – far too hot for the “cool” broadcast medium.

And succumbed more deeply to the missteps and missed opportunities that plagued him the entire evening as he rose to Kamala’s cleverly laid bait:

• Wasting precious moments whining about insufficient credit for a COVID response that wasn’t his finest hour.
• Citing naturally supportive Fox News hosts who debunked the Charlottesville “fine people” slander instead of liberals like CNN’s Jake Tapper and Snopes.
• Not having an answer as to why he commented on his opponent’s race: having it “every which way” is a longstanding pattern of the untrustworthy Ms. Harris.
• Introducing confusion on abortion by distancing himself from his own running mate on a ban and rambling on about the Roe reversal. Instead of just asserting: “I’ve stated I oppose a federal ban because overturning Roe returned the issue to the states where it belongs. Next question?
• Failing to raise his proposal to federally finance IVF.
• Never responding to the border bill charge: why intervene on a bill all House Republicans opposed, since its enforcement provisions had more holes than Swiss cheese on a firing range?
• Not repeating J.D. Vance’s thoughtful explanation on implementing deportation – start with the worst cases, criminals and gang members, and go from there.
• An extended, tone-deaf discussion of the 2020 election steal – Americans want to move on. Plus praise from perceived strongman Victor Orban?
• Overfocusing on Kamala’s past positions and not underscoring that economists have laughed off her proposed price controls and housing subsidies, while her small business tax credits would be offset by economy-wrecking corporate and capital gains tax hikes.
• Repeating the unsubstantiated social media accusation that Haitian immigrants overrunning Springfield, Ohio, ate house pets.
• Being goaded into discussing the Taliban instead of just confronting “the last person in the room” with 13 dead servicemembers and billions in equipment and a strategic airfield left behind. (Mic drop.)
• As always, engaging in hyperbole and unrehearsed, rambling diatribes and inside-baseball digs that fly over voters’ heads.
• And deliberately (as he admitted on Fox) saving his best attack line – go wake up Joe Biden now and implement your proposals – for his close.

The bottom line: the 3-on-1 disadvantage hindered Trump. But not as much as Kamala’s well-designed strategy. And Trump’s own angry-old-man posture and unforced errors.

Luck and design both ran Kamala’s way. As did the night.

Bob Maistros, a regular contributor to Issues & Insights, is a messaging and communications strategist, crisis specialist, and former political speechwriter. He can be reached at bob@rpmexecutive.com.