Inflation in May hit 8.6%, the highest level since 1981, much higher than the expected 8.2% increase, and despite all the “expert” predictions that inflation had already peaked.
Is it any wonder that nobody believes what the elites tell us anymore?
President Joe Biden said on Friday that he “is going to continue to do everything we can to lower the prices for the American people.” Like what? By attacking oil companies and blaming Putin?
If the experts were right, Biden wouldn’t have to do anything, because they were all exclaiming in April that inflation had peaked and would soon be heading downward.
Bank of America analysts said inflation has “likely peaked.” So did Reuters. Forbes reported that consumer inflation likely peaked in March. Our alma mater, Investor’s Business Daily, was part of the “inflation has peaked” chorus. The New York Times ran a story on April 13 headlined: “Has U.S. Inflation Peaked?”
Here are some of the other headlines from that month:
- Why inflation may have already peaked
- Inflation Will Fall Soon, Economists Say
- 3 Signs Inflation May Have Peaked and Prices Could Come Back Down
- Top investment banks are calling peak inflation after a red-hot report. Here’s why they think consumer prices are set to cool
- Inflation at its peak | UBS United States of America
- CPI Inflation Rate Surges To 8.5%, But May Be ‘The Peak’
- 4 Reasons Why the US Could Be Past Peak Inflation
And here are some of the quotes from the “experts”:
- Pantheon chief economist Ian Shepherdson: “Core inflation has peaked, and this is the start of a run of bigger declines,” pointing out that softening vehicle prices could help usher in a “significant moderation” in inflation in the coming months.
- Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers: “Consumer inflation likely peaked in March as the Russian invasion caused a sharp spike in food and energy costs.”
- Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist for S&P Global Ratings: “This is likely near or at the top of the price gains.”
- Moody’s Analytics chief economist, Mark Zandi: “It feels like we’re topping out.”.
- Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial: thinks it’s likely that inflation has already reached a peak on its own, and that the Fed could start to pull back on interest rates by the second half of the year.
- Analysts at UBS: expect inflation will likely peak in March and then fall “sharply.”
- Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock: The economy could be past peak inflation rates as some supply chain constraints have eased and demand has declined, said. Both core consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which excludes food and energy inflation, peaked in March and February and should “move appreciably lower by the end of 2022,” Rieder wrote.
Of course, who can forget what our favorite “economist,” Paul Krugman, wrote in April: “inflation will probably fall significantly over the next few months.”
Keep in mind that many of these same “experts” were telling us last year that Biden’s $2 trillion spending spree wouldn’t spark inflation, and that the spike in prices that started immediately after he signed his “rescue” plan into law was “transitory,” and that the Fed would easily be able to deal with any pricing pressures.
In other words, these people weren’t just wrong about the peak, they’ve been wrong about inflation all along.
To be sure, not everyone had their heads buried in the sand about inflation. Here, for example, is what former Home Depot CEO Bob Nardelli said on “America Reports” in early May.
I don’t think we’re at the peak yet on inflation….I think we’re in for a lot of turbulence for a longer period.
So, here’s an idea. Let’s stop paying attention to the “experts” and start paying attention to the people who actually know what they’re talking about.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board