More Americans want to see former President Trump as the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 than want to see President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, the latest data from the I&I/TIPP Poll show.
Registered voters across the country were asked in April’s I&I Poll, “Who do you want to see run for president on the Republican ticket in 2024?” That was a companion question to a similar one asked about the Democrats.
While this is not the same as taking a poll of a head-to-head matchup between two specific candidates, the results do indicate preferences and political leanings within both major parties and among independents that will powerfully affect the results of upcoming elections.
Some 23% of all those queried said they wanted Donald Trump to head the Republican presidential ticket, compared to just 19% for Biden. This is not the same as taking a poll of a head-to-head matchup between the two, but rather
But a number of other Republicans get support, though none got even half of Trump’s backing. That includes former Vice President Mike Pence (11%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (7%), and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (4%).
Another group of candidates were clustered at 2% support, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Finally came a long list of those garnering just 1%, including New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, with just a handful of supporters, received the statistical equivalent of 0%, while “Other” was supported by 8%, more than any of the named candidates, other than Trump and Pence.
Comparing the data for Biden and Trump gives a clear indication of the political hills both would have to climb to win in 2024, especially within their respective parties.
Clearly, Biden is in serious trouble within the Democratic Party, garnering just 29% support, a clear sign of the toll on his popularity taken by his struggling presidency.
Trump, by comparison, gets 49% support from Republicans, making him a formidable political presence within his own party for the next two years at least. Florida’s DeSantis meanwhile gets 15% support from the Republicans, just above Pence’s 13%.
No other potential Republican candidate gets more than 3% support within their own party, reinforcing the notion that Trump is now the de facto leader of the GOP.
As far as 2024 goes, Biden’s support among key Democratic support groups is shockingly weak.
Take the youngest voters, ages 18-24, who are traditionally liberal in their political leanings. Among this group, 23% want Trump as the Republican candidate, vs. just 11% for Biden.
Voters under 30 gave huge majorities to Biden in 2020, a study from Tufts University showed, and Democrats will need those voters again to win in 2024. But those voters also helped push the Democratic Party sharply toward the progressive left, which may now be costing it mainstream political support.
That may help explain Biden’s sudden change of heart on student loan forgiveness, as he last week embraced a plan that would write off more than $1 trillion in student loans.
But it isn’t just the young. Right now, every age group prefers a Trump candidacy to a Biden one. Only the 25-44 year old category is close, with 25% favoring Trump and 24% Biden.
Women are another weak spot for Biden, with 20% wanting Trump to run, compared to just 14% wanting Biden. As a voting bloc, men are a bit tighter, at 29% Trump to 25% Biden.
Minority voters are split. Just 8% of Black voters say they would like Trump to be the GOP candidate, well below the 27% that prefer Biden. One anomaly: 14% say they want Mike Pence, his highest score with any demographic group.
Where Biden runs into serious trouble is among Hispanic voters. Among this key voting group, 22% lean toward Trump, while only 12% give Biden the nod.
One other insight comes from considering the geography of both candidates’ support. Biden edges Trump among urban dwellers by 25% to 19%. But Biden loses to Trump in the suburbs, 19% to 16%, and gets trounced by Trump in rural areas 33% to 14%.
Recently, some well-known political prognosticators have rearranged their forecasts for the upcoming midterm elections to include “massive shifts in their partisan ratings for House races,” as PJ Media put it.
For instance, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 11 congressional races toward the Republicans and away from the Democrats. The Cook Political Report, meanwhile, is also adding GOP names to the likely win column, according to The Hill:
The changes include moving three previously ‘likely’ Democratic districts — Indiana’s 1st, New York’s 19th and North Carolina’s 1st — into ‘lean’ Democratic territory. Meanwhile, three districts that previously leaned toward Democrats — Nevada’s 3rd and 4th, as well as Virginia’s 7th district — are now toss-ups, according to the election handicapper.
The Cook Political Report also shifted New Jersey’s 3rd District and New York’s 4th District into ‘likely’ Democratic territory rather than ‘solid’ Democratic territory.
In TIPP Polls and elsewhere, a number of Biden’s signature policies have been shown to be unpopular, ranging from the Afghan withdrawal debacle and the open-border policies that have brought a flood of illegal immigrants, to new oil and gas restrictions that have sent gasoline prices soaring and rampant inflation brought about by too much federal “stimulus” spending.
Our own recent I&I/TIPP Poll found a shocking one out of five American voters don’t even expect Biden to finish out his first term. Meanwhile, the “economic malaise” of inflation and slowing growth is now the No. 1 issue for frustrated Americans.
Given the widespread discontent over the Biden administration’s policy direction on a number of major issues, maybe the only thing surprising is that the gap between Biden and Trump isn’t greater than it already is.
The data come from the April I&I/TIPP Poll of 981 registered voters. The poll was conducted online from April 4-6 by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, I&I’s polling partner, with a margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points.
Every month, I&I/TIPP publishes timely and informative data from our polls on this topic and others of interest to Americans. TIPP has earned a reputation for excellence by being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.