Issues & Insights

I&I/TIPP Poll: 56% Blame Biden’s Afghan Debacle For Ukraine Invasion, Fear Putin Will Use Nukes

For more on this topic and others, you can also go to Tipp Insights.

Americans are deeply unsettled by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade neighboring Ukraine, a just-released I&I/TIPP Poll shows. The March public opinion survey shows Americans fear a widening of the conflict could lead to the involvement of U.S. troops and even the use of nuclear weapons by Putin’s Russia.

President Joe Biden’s White House and its supporters in Congress are telling a story of America boldly stepping up to lead Europe in its response to the threat of an aggressive Russia. It’s been repeated by some in the mainstream media.

But a solid majority of Americans are focused on something very different: They worry that a desperate Putin might resort to nuclear weapons.

Those responding to the poll who were following the Russia-Ukraine situation were asked the following: “(Russian) President Putin has placed his nuclear weapons on high alert. How likely do you think he will use nuclear weapons in the current conflict?”

The answer: A shocking 56% said it was “likely,” with 21% saying it was “very likely” and 35% saying “somewhat likely.” Just 31% said it was “not likely.”

Respondents who followed the Russia-Ukraine situation were also asked to what extent they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “The disorderly withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan emboldened Russia to invade Ukraine.”

The response shows the White House has an uphill battle in its public relations campaign: 56% said they either agree “strongly” (30%) or “somewhat” (26%) that the botched departure from Afghanistan encouraged Putin to move against Ukraine. Only 32% disagreed with that statement.

Meanwhile, 78% of those who were following the Russia-Ukraine situation agreed “the situation in Ukraine will develop into a larger regional conflict that could lead to the U.S. military getting involved.” Only 14% said they disagreed with that statement, while 9% were “unsure.”

Strikingly, there was largely bipartisan agreement on this, with more than 70% of Democrats, Republicans, and independents agreeing.

Are Americans unnecessarily fearful, perhaps not understanding the situation? Hardly.

We also asked them how closely they were following news about the situation in Ukraine right now: 73% said they were following “closely,” while just 24% said they weren’t. Only 3% said they weren’t sure.

So people know what’s going on, for the most part. And again, it isn’t just one group paying attention. It’s tripartisan.

So Americans are unusually focused on this story, seeing Russia’s invasion of a sovereign neighbor as a clear danger to our national security and world peace.

But, as the data show, they also see the linkage between the invasion of Ukraine and Biden’s debacle in Afghanistan. The U.S. abandoned its allies in that nation to the murderous Taliban, while leaving thousands of Americans and U.S. visa holders stranded, along with some $80 billion in U.S. military equipment.

In Ukraine, Russian troops are now shelling major civilian areas and have even hit two nuclear facilities, including the infamous Chernobyl nuclear plant, as they attempt to overcome surprisingly strong resistance from Ukraine troops and civilians.

The West has hit Russia with significant sanctions, including removal from the SWIFT global payments system. Putin has warned that the broad economic, diplomatic and cultural boycott put in place by the EU, Britain, and the U.S. verges on an act of war.

A host of major corporations, banks, tech companies, and even news organizations have suspended operations in Russia, leaving the country economically isolated and cut off from the West. The boycott represents a serious threat to Russia, whose GDP of an estimated $1.5 trillion is dwarfed by the U.S. GDP of $20 trillion, along with the combined GDP of NATO countries.

NATO has rejected a no-fly zone over Ukraine, fearing escalation of the conflict after Putin put his troops on nuclear alert. That said, the U.S. over the weekend gave Poland a “green light” to send fighter jets to Ukraine, and more military aid from the U.S. and Europe is flooding in.

Even so, Democrats and Republicans alike in Congress have inveighed against sending U.S. troops to engage Russia on the ground. And, as our data show above, there seems to be a broad political consensus among average Americans to be cautious.

For while NATO and the U.S. hold a significant military edge over Russia in both troops and arms, Russia remains one of the most potent nuclear forces on Earth.

A recent piece in Newsweek sums up the NATO-Russia military gap, based on data from the Statista web site:

NATO allies together have a personnel count of 5.41 million, compared to Russia’s 1.35 million, according to the graphic that was the same as Statista’s figures.

It also found NATO allies had 144,000 armored units, more than double that of Russia’s 60,000, again a similar number to Statista.

NATO once more outnumbered Russia with 20,700 aircraft, a factor of nearly five to one when compared to Russia’s 4,170.

Russia is also outnumbered in regard to its naval forces, which number 605 — far lower than NATO’s 2,049 — once again a similar number to Statista.

But Russia holds an edge, as noted, in nuclear weapons: NATO nations have roughly 6,065 nuclear weapons, compared to Russia’s 6,255. A regional war that turned into a nuclear conflagration is a preventable disaster, Americans seem to agree.

The data in this story come from the I&I/TIPP Poll, which was conducted online from Mar. 2-4 and includes responses from 1,318 adults from across the country. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

As a service to our readers, I&I/TIPP will continue to provide timely and informative data from our monthly polls on this topic and others of major interest. TIPP has earned a reputation for excellence by being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Terry Jones is editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

We Could Use Your Help

Issues & Insights was founded by seasoned journalists of the IBD Editorials page. Our mission is to provide timely, fact-based reporting and deeply informed analysis on the news of the day -- without fear or favor.

We’re doing this on a voluntary basis because we believe in a free press, and because we aren't afraid to tell the truth, even if it means being targeted by the left. Revenue from ads on the site help, but your support will truly make a difference in keeping our mission going. If you like what you see, feel free to visit our Donations Page by clicking here. And be sure to tell your friends!

You can also subscribe to I&I: It's free!

Just enter your email address below to get started.


Terry Jones

Terry Jones was part of Investor's Business Daily from its inception in 1983, working in a variety of posts, including reporter, economics correspondent, National Issues editor and economics editor. Most recently, from 1996 to 2019, he served as associate editor of the newspaper and deputy editor and editor of IBD's Issues & Insights. His many media appearances include spots on the Larry Kudlow, Bill O’Reilly, Dennis Miller, Dennis Prager, Michael Medved and Glenn Beck shows. He also served as Free Markets columnist for Townhall Magazine, and as a weekly guest on PJTV’s The Front Page. He holds both bachelor's and master's degrees from UCLA, and is an Abraham Lincoln Fellow at the Claremont Institute


  • A hit and a miss.
    The online poll is only capturing the people already looking at the news. Americans are unsettled that Biden has created yet another crisis that is impacting Americans negatively, not that Putin has attacked Ukraine. Most Americans could not find the Ukraine on a map and most have no idea what led to their war. Biden has a hand in escalating the conflict that has been going on for a long time.

    Most of us think it was quite a sudden turn for the media to go from peddling Covid lies to Ukraine lies in a single day. Most Americans would like to support America and have national security here at home. Most Americans would like our government to stop indebting us beyond our means.

  • Joe Biden is not a conceptual thinker, nor do he and the Obama administration retreads in our State Department do foreign policy well. Vlad ‘The Bad’ Putin has awakened America and Europe in an explosive fashion. Given that he did not camouflage his intentions, why were the Foggy Bottom Boys in our State Department and NATO gurus so late to the explosion? After all, he seized parts of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2015 without significant pushback, spoke to Europe and his own people on several occasions about barely disguised revanchist desires after the old Soviet Union collapsed, and yet here we are, basically playing catchup to a tyrant who told us what was about to happen. I guess the debate over preferred pronouns was more important. Yeah, that must be it.

    In his Iron Curtain speech on March 5, 1946 in Fulton, Missouri, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill predicted what came to pass during the Cold War. A few days after the speech, Averell Harriman, a close friend of the British leader, spoke with him privately and recorded Churchill’s thoughts. Referring to the Russians, Churchill said they had no understanding of such words as “honesty,” “honor,” “trust” and “truth” – in fact they regarded them as negative virtues. They will try every door in the house, Churchill said, enter all the rooms which are not locked, and when they come to one that is barred, if they are unsuccessful in breaking through it they will withdraw and invite you to dine genially that same evening.

    Putin is channeling Russian dictator Josef Stalin more than 65 years after his death. Will a second Cold War be a part of his legacy?

About Issues & Insights

Issues & Insights is run by the seasoned journalists behind the legendary IBD Editorials page. Our goal is to bring our decades of combined journalism experience to help readers understand the top issues of the day. We’re doing this on a voluntary basis, because we believe the nation needs the kind of cogent, rational, data-driven, fact-based commentary that we can provide. 

We Could Use Your Help

Help us fight for honesty in journalism and against the tyranny of the left. Issues & Insights is published by the editors of what once was Investor's Business Daily's award-winning opinion pages. If you like what you see, leave a donation by clicking on donate button above. You can also set up regular donations if you like. Ad revenue helps, but your support will truly make a difference. (Please note that we are not set up as a charitable organization, so donations aren't tax deductible.) Thank you!
%d bloggers like this: