If an election were held today, a substantial number of those who voted President Joe Biden in November wouldn’t do so now, a new I&I/TIPP Poll shows. This comes after a spate of recent polls from TIPP and others suggesting Biden’s political support is in a freefall as Americans question his leadership on issues ranging from COVID-19 to the chaos on the U.S.’ southern border to the recent botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The I&I/TIPP Poll asked Americans: “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?”
Respondents were given the following choices: “Donald Trump, the Republican,” “Joe Biden, the Democrat,” “Other,” “Not sure,” and “Prefer not to answer.”
Just 46% of those who voted in the November 2020 election said they’d vote for Biden today, more than five full percentage points below his official total 51.3% share in the 2020 presidential election. That doesn’t mean voters are wishing they’d instead picked Trump, who in recent weeks has hinted at a possible re-run in 2024. The poll found 42% said they’d pick Trump now, down from his actual 2020 election total of 46.9%.
Some 7% of those responding said they would vote for someone “other” than the two candidates, while 4% said they were unsure whom they would vote for.
These data come from the I&I/TIPP poll, conducted each month by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, I&I’s polling partner. The poll of 1,305 adults was taken online from Sept. 1 through Sept. 3, and is part of a broad new public opinion collaboration between Issues & Insights and TIPP. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 points. The analysis for this story is based 1,002 Americans who voted in 2020 and revealed their 2020 vote.
Also interesting is where Biden lost the most support – among women, suburbanites, moderates, and the middle-class. In other words, the key groups that helped put him in the White House.
The poll found that only 49% of women said they’d vote for Biden today, down from 57% who said they did so in November. Among suburbanites, 41% would vote for Biden now, down from 48% who’d actually cast their ballot for him.
Biden’s support among moderates went from 56% to 47%. Among those making between $50,000 and $75,000, it fell from 54% to 44%.
Biden has lost support from Democrats as well, with 88% saying they’d vote him now, compared with 93% who said they did so in November. But support for Trump among Republicans has declined as well. The poll found that 86% of Republicans said they’d vote for Trump today, down from 93% who did so.
The only demographic group where Biden maintained support was among those with a high-school education, 44% of whom said they’d vote for Biden today, the same share as in November. But Biden’s support dropped 8 points among those with some college (from 52% down to 44%), and 5 points among those with at least a bachelor’s degree (55% to 50%).
Not surprisingly, voters continued to split along the same demographic and ideological lines as the election when asked to choose between Biden and Trump.
While 86% of Republicans said they would vote for Trump today, just 5% of Democrats would. Among Democrats, 88% gave their support to Biden today, while 5% of Republicans did the same. Among independents, a huge swing vote, 44% said they’d support Trump, just 34% Biden. Fully 15% of independents, however, said they’d pick some other candidate.
A clear split by race was also seen. Among those identifying as white, 50% favored Trump, versus just 38% for Biden. Among the large bloc of black/Hispanic voters, just 22% gave the nod to Trump, while 67% supported Biden.
Data from other TIPP polls clearly show that Biden’s support has been in a serious nosedive for weeks.
The separate IBD/TIPP Poll queries Americans on presidential leadership. TIPP, in a published editorial, noted:
September was the biggest monthly decline in the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index’s history, plunging 9.3 points, from 58.7 to 49.8, a 15.8 percent decline.
President Biden’s decline surpasses President George W. Bush’s previous monthly record of 15.6% set in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.
It is also the largest monthly point drop, surpassing President Bush’s April 2001 drop of 8.7 points.
The IBD/TIPP Direction of Country Index plunged 7.5 points, or 14.5%, to 44.2 in September from 51.7 in August.
“It is an unusual occurrence, as the index has dropped by this much only eight times in the last two decades,” noted Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, in reporting that new data.
TIPP, as we’ve noted before, has the distinction of being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Other polls confirm Biden’s troubles. A recent Zogby Poll, for instance, found that 20% of Biden voters express regret over their presidential vote in 2020. A Rasmussen Poll taken this week, meanwhile, shows 55% disapproval for the job Biden is doing as president. A Reuters/Ipsos Poll shows Biden’s approval at its lowest level in his presidency.
Also, a Quinnipiac University showed that just 42% approve of Biden as president compared to 46% last month.
“If there ever was a honeymoon for President Biden, it is clearly over,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy told Newsweek. “This is, with few exceptions, a poll full of troubling negatives … from overall job approval to foreign policy to the economy.”
An average of eight national presidential favorability polls calculated by RealClearPolitics shows 49.8% disapproval for Biden vs. 45.3% approval, a net -4.5 favorability. By comparison, as recently as April, Biden had a net +15.8 favorability, a huge 20-point plunge in favorability in just five months.
These are more than just twitches in numbers in meaningless polls. They indicate a growing, broad-based decline in popularity for Biden early in his presidency. With the 2022 midterm elections a little more than a year away, Biden’s political troubles could well have a major impact on Democrats’ ability to maintain their already-weak hold on Congress.