R. Bruce McColmOn Sunday, May 19, the Iranian regime was dealt a significant blow when President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir Hossein Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash. While Raisi’s role was largely symbolic in a system where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holds ultimate authority, his death exacerbates the regime’s existing crises and exposes Khamenei’s vulnerabilities.
Raisi’s ascension to the presidency was no accident. Khamenei, ever the puppet master, meticulously engineered the elections in 2021, purging even his own loyalists to ensure Raisi’s path to victory.
Raisi was more than just a functionary; he was Khamenei’s enforcer, unwaveringly obedient, and fiercely hardline. His departure leaves Khamenei in a precarious position, struggling to find a successor who can match Raisi’s zeal and loyalty.
The regime’s immediate reaction is predictable: a ramp-up of internal repression and external aggression. History has shown that when faced with internal strife, the Iranian theocracy doubles down on its iron-fisted policies. This time will be no different. Expect a brutal crackdown on dissent and a surge in hostile activities abroad as the regime attempts to project strength and stability.
The loss of Foreign Minister Abdollahian compounds the regime’s predicament. Abdollahian was instrumental in cementing the IRGC’s dominance over Iran’s foreign policy, ensuring the regime’s aggressive posture in the region. His absence disrupts this delicate balance and weakens the regime’s strategic foothold.
Raisi’s notorious past was well-known for the Iranian people. As Tehran’s deputy prosecutor during the 1988 Massacre, Raisi played a key role in the Death Commission that executed thousands of political prisoners. Over 90% of the victims were members and supporters of the main opposition, Mujahedin-e Khalq (PMOI/MEK), which is a key constituent of the broader coalition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
Raisi’s rapid rise through the ranks, despite lacking formal qualifications, was a testament to his effectiveness as an enforcer of the regime’s most brutal policies. From his early days as a prosecutor in the cities of Karaj and Hamedan, where he oversaw mass executions, to his role as head of Astan Quds Razavi and later the judiciary chief, Raisi was the embodiment of the regime’s ruthless theocracy. When he was the head of the judiciary, he brutalized protestors and oversaw a surge in executions.
The regime’s fragility is now laid bare. This incident not only undermines its internal cohesion but also emboldens a population that has grown increasingly disenchanted with the status quo. The younger generation, in particular, loathes everything Raisi stood for and sees his death as a moment of potential change.
The Iranian people’s continuous protests reflect their deep-seated desire for justice and accountability. And, the proliferation of teams of brave activists, known as Resistance Units, has seriously challenged the regime’s suppressive entities.
In the immediate aftermath of Raisi’s death, Khamenei faces the daunting task of replacing his most trusted enforcer. The regime is likely to intensify its crackdown on dissent and ramp up its destabilizing activities abroad in an effort to maintain power and control. However, these actions may only accelerate its downfall by further alienating the Iranian people and attracting greater international condemnation.
The international community must recognize this pivotal moment and adopt a firm stance against the Iranian theocracy. The regime has consistently interpreted appeasement as weakness, responding with heightened aggression and repression.
Supporting the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom is not just a moral duty but a strategic necessity. While Raisi evaded accountability in life, his death should refocus attention on Khamenei and other regime leaders responsible for perpetuating oppression and violence.
Today, Khamenei’s carefully constructed power structure is in serious jeopardy, leaving the regime more vulnerable than ever in the midst of growing protests and internal troubles. The international community must stand with the Iranian people in their quest for justice and democracy, ensuring that those responsible for decades of tyranny, genocide, and egregious crimes against humanity are held accountable.
This moment presents a unique opportunity to support the emergence of a more just and democratic Iran, and it must not be squandered.
McColm is president of the Institute for Democratic Strategies and former executive director of the Freedom House.
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