Terry JonesPresident Donald Trump has barely finished the first year of his second term in office, but already pollsters are looking to the midterm 2026 congressional battle and 2028 presidential election. That includes the I&I/TIPP Poll. Believe it or not, many voters are already deciding whom they will support.
The latest national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked registered voters of both major parties and independents two questions about their preferences.
The poll, which was taken by 1,126 registered voters from Jan. 27 to Jan. 29, has an overall margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
The first question: If the vote were held today, which candidate would they favor to be their presidential candidates in 2028? And, the second: Which party do they want to control Congress after 2026’s midterm elections?
Start with the 2028 presidential election. While no candidate received a majority for either party, the leading candidates were predictable.
Among the 527 Democratic primary voters, Kamala Harris received 38% of the vote, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (13%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (5%), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (4%) and a long list of others at 3% or less.
However, not all people on the Democrat side have made up their minds: “Not sure” got a 17% chunk of the answers, while “someone else” (4%) got smaller support.
Among the 478 Republican primary voters, the 2028 presidential favorites include Vice President J.D. Vance (43%), Donald Trump Jr. (18%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (5%), and a list of nine others who received 3% or less support.
Once again, “not sure” got a sizable 15% and “someone else” got just 1%.
So name recognition, at this stage of the process, seems to mean a lot.
That might be why Kamala Harris still gets a hefty chunk of the Democratic vote, despite being drubbed by Donald Trump in 2024; and also why Donald Trump Jr. looms large with nearly a fifth of the total vote for his party, despite not showing any clear presidential ambitions — at least not yet.
With only nine months to go for midterm congressional elections, I&I/TIPP asked another significant question of voters, namely: “Which party do you prefer to control Congress after this year’s midterm election?”
There, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans, 45% to 42%, with a significant 12% who say they haven’t decided yet.
Even so, the breakout by political affiliation shows why Democrats have a slight edge right now. Democrats, by an overwhelming 97%, want their party in control; none selected the GOP. Meanwhile, 92% of Republicans said they wanted their own party in power, while 2% said they thought Democrats should control Congress.
The decider in the coming election will likely be independents: They lean 37% to Democratic control, and 32% to Republican control. But a whopping 31% of independents still haven’t made up their minds.
So Republicans have their work cut out for them in the upcoming election battles. But they also have some hidden advantages.
Democratic support is heaviest among young people: those in the 18-24 age group, for instance, lean 50% toward the Dems, but only 22% toward the Republicans. Among those 25-64 years of age, the parties are virtually deadlocked in terms of support around 35% each. But for those 65 and over, Republican registrations account for 42%, Democrats just 32%.
This is significant because older voters are most likely to go to the polls. In 2024, they had a 74.7% turnout, compared to just 47% for 18-24 year olds and just over 60% for the 25-44 year olds
White voters lean Republican over Democrat by 43% to 28%. That compares to 52% Democrat, 18% Republican for minority voters. Again, this is significant because white voters are more likely to vote than other groups.
The same is true for income. Republican registration rises with income, as does voter participation.
So turnout will be key for the coming elections for both parties, particularly with a deadlocked electorate as we currently have.
Turnout, indeed, is key for the entire electorate. The question is: Who will turn out?
That might depend to a great extent on the SAVE Act now in Congress. The new law would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, and also would compels states to remove all noncitizens from their voting rolls. It also requires voters to provide a valid ID at the polls, as they now must do to board a plane, rent a a hotel room, or buy alcohol.
That bill passed the House of Representatives 218-213 last week, and now goes to the Senate, where Republican supporters say they now have 50 votes — enough to pass it with a tie-breaking vote by Vance.
However, it’s enough to pass the bill only if the Democrats don’t filibuster. If they do, it will require 60 votes to move forward.
There’s also another signal issue involved in the upcoming elections, one that directly affects the Democratic Party: Americans believe it has gone too far to the left.
“You know, there used to be a lot of conservative Democrats,” CNN senior election data analyst Harry Enten said. “Right back in 1999, 26% of Democrats self-identified as conservative. Just 5% said that they were very liberal. It was a smidgen, a smidgen, a smidgen. Now that far left has gained considerably in power. Look at this. Now we’re talking about a fifth of Democrats, 21% say they’re very liberal. That conservative part of the Democratic Party, adios amigos, goodbye, just 8%.”
What’s more, 33% of Democrats and 42% of Democrats under 35 now call themselves Democratic Socialists.
That could be enough to scare off independent voters and fence-sitters come election time. As the I&I/TIPP data show, 18% of voters self identify as “conservative,” while 16% call themselves “liberal” and a big plurality of 43% see themselves as “moderate.” America is not a liberal majority nation, not even close, which could be big trouble for Democrats.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
Hopefully, the economy will (and it should with all the new spending coming from out of the country) create jobs and add to our once dwindling manufacturing base. Also, the new Fed Chairman will probably significantly lower interest rates. Thus, not only will the new manufacturing base create jobs, the demand for labor will shoot up and thus so will the wage rate.
As for lowering interest rates, this will show up in the housing market and free up housing by having more houses being put on sale as elderly people with houses they want to sell (in order to downsize) will not be penalized anymore by the high interest rates .
Also, the deportation (whether willingly or unwillingly) will increase the supply of empty apartments by the illegal non-citizens being moved out and the demand shouldn’t be as much-since the apartments now house fewer people (with illegals gone) who demand living quarters.
Inflation should not be a problem as supply-side economics takes hold and our manufacturing base increases (thus, we also do not have to depend on the vagaries of “supply chains” as much).
As I mentioned, wages will rise as the demand for labor increases. As wages rise and inflation lowers purchasing power (real wages) will rocket up.
This is not even mentioning the other areas that President Trump is addressing (EG our trade deficits and our foreign affairs). Moreover, I believe the growth in the economy (which Pres. Trump colorfully said could be 15%) could very well hack away at our national debt-even if the growth is only 5-8%.
By the time of the midterms, hopefully, the polls taken will turn away from the Democrats (who either lie about their political adversaries, EG “Russia Russia Collusion” or create problems by ignoring them) and lend its fair and lofty gusts towards the Republicans.
The few points lead the polls say Democrats now have should hastily go the way of the Dodo Bird-and evaporate and become extinct.
I supported Donald Trump in the last three general elections but he’s lost me by appointing antivaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary. According to some polls, about 80 percent of Americans support vaccines, including mandatory ones to go to school. Kowtowing to MAHA crunchy moms and far right conspiracy theorists will cost GOP votes in the midterms and in 2028. Kids are going to die from measles and whooping cough. And polio may be back thanks to RFK Jr and his army of wellness grifters.
I agree. I’m a long time Donald Trump supporter and this is why I still am: While I agree with you that vaccines against, for instance, measles, small pox and whooping cough prevented a lot of deaths and that the polio vaccine (which my MD Dad administered at my elementary school) was a God-send (it saved a lot of lives from a paralytic disease), not every thing called a vax is actually a vax.
The COVID vax was a deadly “vax” and contributed to vascular disease (such as clots) and athletes dying from heart inflammation. Also, many got what is termed “Long COVID” and other painful, debilitating ailments.
Dr Makary (of the FDA) and Dr. Bachatarrya who was appointed to the NIH are good doctors and seem like very fine people. Both were against the COVID vax-while not being against all vaxes.
It should be applauded that both were appointed to their positions by RK Jr. To me this tells a lot.
As I said I’m not against all vaccines, but the name “vaccine” is now used as a bludgeon to thwart all criticism of the danger the “vax” may pose to kids.
In my opinion, drug companies are using the word “vax” as a barrier to criticism and a boost to their profits.
Studies have shown that Election Betting Odds are more accurate than polls. One reason is that people putting their money where their mouth is take many things into account. The combined odds from 6 of these sites are shown at https://electionbettingodds.com/ and paint a slightly different picture than this poll.
In the whole USA, is there one Democrat who is not shallow, far left, ill informed, delusional, a boilerplate liar like Adam Schiff, veering toward Socialism and as unwise and unworldly to be our President as were Obama, Biden and most certainly unfit for leadership, Kamala?
The list above of the Democrats in line is deeply embarrassing and distressing for our country.
Bring us one honest, competent, sound, wise and worldly Democrat with true leadership qualities, please! One!
Fetterman
Never believe the polls….