I & I Editorial BoardThe government’s official report on economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 won’t come out for another six weeks. But a preview should be a cause for celebration for everyone who isn’t a Democratic politician.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta keeps a running tab on the economy, using economic data as it comes in to produce an ongoing forecast for GDP growth as the quarter unfolds – which it calls GDPNow.
The number usually bounces around a little as that data come in, and the final number is usually very close to the official government report that comes out several weeks after the quarter ends.
But yesterday saw something unusual.
On Thursday, the GDPNow estimate doubled.
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth … in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4% on January 8, up from 2.7% on January 5,” it says.
The Atlanta Fed attributes the jump to recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management.
To be sure, the GDPNow figure will be revised again, and could fall as more numbers come in. But if this one turns out to be accurate, it would mean the third consecutive quarter of increasing GDP growth under President Donald Trump. That’s a far cry from the calamity his critics have been – and still are – predicting. As the GDPNow chart shows, the Blue Chip consensus forecast for Q4 was below 1%.
But things like this seem to keep happening. The economy keeps “unexpectedly” doing better than the experts predicted. The third quarter GDP number came in well above expectations. Job growth in November beat expectations. Inflation keeps coming in below expert forecasts. Etc.
RELATED: “Yes, Democrats, Trump Does Own This Economy“
This is good news, unless you are a Democrat. That party has built its case for support entirely on the claim that Donald Trump is a dangerous threat to the country, that his policies are bringing economic ruin, and that if they just say “affordability crisis” over and over again, voters will put them back in charge.
But what if the economy continues to surge forward this year? We hope it does, not just because we want Republicans to retain control of Congress after the November midterms, but because it will benefit every American who’s struggled under the weight of Obamanomics and Bidenomics.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
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This is unbelievable!
The Atlanta Fed estimate for GDP growth actually doubled at the beginning of Jan,2026, in just a few days.
The Blue Chip consensus (an average of economic forecasts from about 50 leading private-sector economists at major banks, manufacturers, and brokerage firms) for the 4th quarter of 2025 was less than 1% growth.
This Atlanta Fed analysis is based on the analyses from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management.
This is some economic forecast-I don’t understand why (and maybe they will today) the Trump Administration doesn’t blare this to the highest realms of heaven.
The explanation for why the Trump admin doesn’t blare this to the highest realms of the heavens is contained right in the article: “To be sure, the GDPNow figure will be revised again, and could fall as more numbers come in.”
The GDPNow forecast changes multiple times throughout the quarter. Essentially, every time a major piece of monthly economic data is released (retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, etc.) In fact, even just since this article was printed, GDPNow has been revised from the 5.4% contained in the article down to 5.1%. Still very good, but an example of the fluctuations that will continue to occur. At present, all the data has been released for October and November, but December data is just beginning to become available so multiple future revisions should be expected.
Now, if Q4 GDP actually comes in at 5% (or even 4%), you can rest assured the Trump admin will blare it to the highest realms of the heavens. But to do so at present would create a significant risk of ending up with egg on the face (although that typically doesn’t seem to bother the Trump admin).
Strong disagree. Unemployment is going to keep on rising along with GDP. As has been said before, “you can’t eat GDP”. It might be a boon for Republicans if they had a Reagan at the helm, rather than a lunatic. Alas, that ship has sailed.
You seem to misremember Reagan’s first term. In January 1982, according to the press and the left, he was a wild eyed cowboy who would destroy the economy and then incinerate the earth. By the next spring he was receiving standing ovations from world leaders for the economic miracle underway in America. Here we are again.
Amazing what a lunatic can accomplish in a very short period of time…against strong “headwinds”, isn’t it?
Uh, the economy was strong under Biden and Republicans complained the entire time.
The democratic parties’ Wall Street donors can’t make money when Americans have good paying jobs. They need huge trade deficits that they can then financialize for their own profit. A rising GDP isn’t enough. Republicans need to focus on how trade deficits are a crucial link in the democrat’s funding machine.