I & I Editorial BoardThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was going to be above normal. With less than a week left in the season, how has the forecast panned out? It was off by a bit – the storms didn’t develop as predicted, even though we’ve been told for decades that man-caused global warming was going to bring stronger and more frequent storms.
In May, NOAA’s forecast called for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance we would see a near-normal season and only a 10% chance that activity would be below normal.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick bragged that “NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings.”
And yet the predictions, made a little more than a week before hurricane season began on June 1, were off. There were 13 named storms, one fewer than the 1991-to-2000 normal, five hurricanes, two fewer than the 1991-to-2000 normal, and four major hurricanes, one more than the 1991-to-2000 normal. As of Monday, NOAA was reporting that tropical cyclone formation was not expected during the next seven days.
What’s more, no hurricane made landfall in the U.S. This hasn’t happened in a decade.
Actually, NOAA’s hurricane prediction was not a bad forecast, though, as engineer and climate blogger Pierre Gosselin noted, it was “a bit on the hyped side.”
There was no drama in the U.S. We weren’t tormented by “superstorms.” Globally, cyclone activity has not increased over the last 45 years, and “the overall trend has been somewhat downward since 1990, with no real trend since 1970,” says Gosselin. A rich dataset offered by researcher Roger Pielke Jr. shows that there’s been no upward trend in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1900 and global cyclonic energy per hurricane has been stable since 1980.
Missed forecasts happen. Thousands watch the evening news and take their umbrellas to work the next day but see only sun. Communities prepare for snow, but it never arrives. Or it snows twice as much as some “most trusted” weatherman said it would and an entire city is shut down.
Even with the “most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems,” forecasts should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. Yet the global warming catastrophists continue to demand more burdensome public policy administered by a bigger and stronger bureaucracy. They hope to cripple the only prosperity-creating economic system in human history based on climate models, some created decades ago, that foretell of doom. We are expected to trust the “science” though the models run hot and have provided the wrong answer, and short-term weather projections often miss the mark.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
Wait a minute, wait a minute … you mean all those global warming screeds we’ve been hearing from the likes of that former fat VP, the one who’s wife dumped him, the buffoon of the ‘inconvenient facts’, those were just drivel???
Wait till the after next El Ninyo to do any cheering. We’re in a La Ninya now, which usually means the Pacific is more active than the Atlantic, and the winters in the northern hemisphere are bad. EN is the opposite.
Some of the named storms in 2025 did not last more than 24 hours as “hurricanes before dropping back below hurricane speed winds. The only reason these storms were “named” was they were detected by satellite images. In past decades these short lived storms never would have been named at all because the weakened before hurricane chaser planes could have gotten to the storms to measure the actual wind speed.
“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was going to be above normal. ”
… they say this every year, to the point where its a running joke to us Floridians. And they’ll say it again next year.
Did you ever imagine that Global Warming would kill hurricanes?
If not for global warming, there would be no golfing in Canada.
“In May, NOAA’s forecast called for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance we would see a near-normal season and only a 10% chance that activity would be below normal.”
“And yet the predictions, made a little more than a week before hurricane season began on June 1, were off.”
Do you not understand probability, or do you not proof read?
Do you not understand hype? Do you not understand…they were WRONG? Again.
There has not been a statistical increase in hurricanes or their intensity during the last 100 years. The 1930s, 1960s, and the aughts had the largest storms. Additionally, many more people now live in areas vulnerable to hurricanes than ever before. The forecast surprised me because we are in a La Niña cycle.