Computer industry executives, economists, government officials and businesspeople all seem to be very high on the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI). But what about average Americans? They mostly believe AI should be feared, not embraced, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

To kick off the three-question national online poll on AI, I&I/TIPP first asked 1,362 Americans the following: “Do you think artificial intelligence (AI) will mostly create new jobs, mostly take away jobs, or not make much difference?”

It wasn’t close. Just 17% responded that AI would create jobs, while 54% answered that it would “mostly take away jobs.” Of the remainder, 15% said it would “not make much difference,” while 14% were unsure. The poll, taken from Aug. 27-29, has

The AI job pessimism was pervasive. In none of the 36 demographic groups that I&I/TIPP tracks each month was there a majority believing that more jobs would be created, not destroyed. Indeed, the highest scores for those thinking it would create more jobs were 36% (for Investors) and 35% (for Parents), two groups often known for optimism and wishful thinking.

In short, Americans are downright gloomy about how AI will affect their job futures.

The second question was related to AI’s well-documented massive electricity demand: “Some reports suggest that AI consumes substantial amounts of electricity and could lead to increased power costs. Do you see this as a serious problem, a minor issue, or not a problem at all?”

Once more, pessimism was the vibe across the board.

Overall, among those responding, 50% called it a “major issue,” while just 29% said it was a “minor issue” and just 7% termed it “not a problem.” Another 14% were unsure.

The AI issue even seems to bring the three main political affiliations together for a kumbaya moment over the issue. Democrats (51% “serious problem,” 31% “minor issue,” 4% “not a problem”) were not much different than Republicans (48% “serious problem,” 31% “minor issue,” 10% “not a problem”) or independents (52% “serious problem,” 25% “minor issue,” 8% “not a problem”).

For a final question aimed at the general AI zeitgeist: “Which comes closer to your view of AI right now?”

Among all respondents, 20% answered “It’s overhyped and won’t live up to its promises,” while a hefty plurality of 45% warned “It’s dangerous and its risks are being downplayed,” and only 21% agreed “It will bring big benefits worth the risks.” Another 14% weren’t sure.

Only three groups were over 30% on the bullish AI answer, “It will bring big benefits worth the risks:” Parents (34%), college grads and higher (32%), and investors (33%). All other groups were 30% or lower.

It’s hard to recall a recent technological development that brought so much doubt and fear. Yes, the computer revolution was concerning to some who worried that little electronic boxes on desktops would someday make them obsolete.

In the 1980s, the website Brillianto reminds us, “The 1980s saw increased computer-related jobs, video store workers, retail sales, fitness instructors, real estate agents, and computer-related jobs due to technological advancements, home entertainment systems, and the housing boom.”

Indeed, if there was apprehension at the start of the 1980s tech-boom, it dissipated quickly as the decade wore on and both jobs and incomes boomed. In 1984, just 15% of households had personal computers. Four years later, it was 50%. (These statistics, by the way, were dug up by an artificial intelligence “search assist”).

So Americans embraced PCs, and saw them as allies, not replacements.

Will apprehension and fear again give way to soaring optimism, this time over AI? Or will it be different than the computer and internet revolutions?

It’s hard to say. Right now, the AI world is filled with bullish estimates for how big the economic impact of AI will be.

A recent summation from MIT put it this way:

“Artificial intelligence research is filled with dramatic forecasts. AI will affect almost 40% of jobs around the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. It will increase global GDP by $7 trillion — or 7% — over 10 years, predicts Goldman Sachs. Or it will grow between $17.1 and $25.6 trillion annually, if you prefer to go with McKinsey’s estimate. And these projections are relatively conservative compared with others.”

The truth is, many of the estimates for AI growth are huge. But will everyone benefit? That’s hard to say. And not everyone believes the impact of AI will be enormous.

Economist Daron Acemoglu, the 2024 Nobel Price winner for economics, is one of those.

In a study earlier this year, “The Simple Macroeconomics Of AI,” Acemoglu sketched out a more modest view of growth from AI. Over the next 10 years, he expects that only about 5% of all tasks will be profitably performed by AI, while GDP will get a mild 1% boost over that time. And productivity will grow a total of only about 0.7% during that period. No boom.

The truth is, AI is in its infancy. It has yet to have major impacts on jobs, incomes or productivity, the things that worry average Americans. If Acemoglu’s view prevails, AI will not be a disaster for most American workers. But for now, as the I&I/TIPP Poll very shows, Americans are deeply concerned about AI, which looms as a major surprise issue in the 2028 presidential election.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.